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Half Marathon Pace Prediction Chart

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Half Marathon Pace Prediction Chart
Half Marathon Pace Prediction Chart
Rock the Parkway Half Marathon Race Prediction Chart
A Sound Approach to Choosing the Appropriate Pace Team
This prediction chart was calculated by Gerry Purdy in his book, Computerized Running Training Programs. These
numbers are rounded to make it easier to remember the corresponding times for your target race. For the average
runner under average conditions, a 22 minute 5K would give them the necessary speed to do a 1:45 half marathon.
Conversely, a 4:20 marathoner should be able to run a sub 2:05 half marathon. Of course, there will be a variety of
outcomes on either side of this performance curve depending on the race course, weather, training specific to the
distance, mental preparation, and pacing strategies, to name a few. Each person will tend to have a niche distance that
they will do better at. However, the chart is accurate for most people. In other words, use it with discretion.
With Rock the Parkway’s rolling terrain, first-time half marathoners should wisely choose the next pace group or two
back for their given time in the shorter races since the number one goal should be to finish with time as a secondary
goal. And, it’s better to start conservatively with the option to pick it up rather than starting aggressively and be
forced to slow down later on. For all others, a time achieved on a gently rolling tune up race course will prove to be
more accurate as will a race closer to the half marathon.
If you cannot make it to a race, substitute one of your workouts for a time trial on a track or measured trail on
relatively flat terrain. Warm up 20 minutes, then run as smart and hard as you can for 2 miles (inside of lane 1 for 8
laps on a track, four laps to a mile) followed by a 5-10 minute cool down jog. You can take your pace and look at
what this pace for a 5K equates to for your target race.
In helping you choose a more appropriate pace team given your ability, it will prove to be a win-win situation as more
people will actually get to run and work together from start to finish with the guidance of our pacers. Good luck in
choosing wisely!
5K 10K *HALF MARATHON TEAMS* Marathon
Time Pace Time Pace Time Pace Time Pace
19:15 6:10 40:30 6:30 1:30 6:50 3:10 7:15
20:15 6:30 42:30 6:50 1:35 7:15 3:22 7:45
21:20 6:50 45:00 7:15 1:40 7:35 3:33 8:10
22:15 7:10 47:00 7:35 1:45 8:00 3:43:30 8:30
23:30 7:30 49:40 8:00 1:50 8:25 3:55:30 9:00
24:15 7:50 51:25 8:15 1:55 8:50 4:05 9:20
25:30 8:10 54:00 8:40 2:00 9:10 4:17:20 9:50
26:15 8:30 55:50 9:00 2:05 9:30 4:26:40 10:10
27:25 8:50 58:15 9:20 2:10 9:55 4:39:15 10:40
28:20 9:10 1:00:25 9:45 2:15 10:20 4:50:20 11:05
29:25 9:30 1:02:50 10:05 2:20 10:40 5:02 11:30
30:25 9:50 1:05 10:25 2:25 11:05 5:12 11:55
31:25 10:05 1:07:15 10:45 2:30 11:30 5:24 12:20
32:20 10:25 1:09:30 11:05 2:35 11:50 5:34 12:45
33:25 10:45 1:11:45 11:30 2:40 12:10 5:45 13:10
34:30 11:05 1:14 11:50 2:45 12:35 5:56 13:35
35:15 11:20 1:15:15 12:05 2:50 13:00 6:07 14:00
36:30 11:40 1:17:30 12:30 2:55 13:20 6:20 14:30
37:15 12:00 1:19:50 12:50 3:00 13:45 6:32 15:00
Half Marathon Pace Prediction Chart